On the 28th of June, a significant statement was issued by the Minister of Information, Publicity and Broadcasting Services and acting Minister of Home Affairs, Jenfan Muswere.
The statement, which warned of ‘attempts to instigate anarchy and despondency by some unnamed criminal and opportunistic elements in the opposition, some politicians and some civil society organisations…’, carries an eerily strong message.
The statement unequivocally threatens, ‘… as a government, we are warning perpetrators of these serial choreographed theatrics who are involved in subversive activities aimed at undermining the rule of law that their days are numbered and that their lawless plans will never see the light of the day”.
Politics is opportunistic, and those who have used their opportunities well have achieved a lot. But it’s another thing to call opponents criminals because you disagree with them. I argue in this article that the statement by the minister is primarily targeted at an internal audience rather than external forces like opposition parties and civil society actors. The easy and misleading explanation is that ZANU-PF is worried about the likely fallout of the Gen Z demonstrations in Kenya, and they think what happened in Kenya will inspire young Zimbabweans, but there is more to that.
The real issue is that the message of the statement is directed at ZANU-PF factions that are not happy with the attempt to extend the term of the President.
In 2023, at the ZANU PF national conference, Masvingo Province sang, “Ngaarambe Achitonga” (Let him continue ruling) and the province was awarded best song for the day by the party’s Commissar. Shots had been fired, and many insiders began questioning what was happening.
Fast forward to 2024, the slogan, “2030 vaMnangangwa vanenge varipo” (Mnangagwa will still be in power in 2030), has been chanted at many ZANU PF rallies, gatherings and events. It is now clear that there is a section of ZANUPF that wants to amend the Constitution either to remove the two-term clause altogether or to extend the current term by another two years and have elections in 2030. Both possibilities don’t have the support of the majority in ZANUPF not least because those not enjoying the “tender gravy train” right now want their turn to eat.
In April, President Emmerson Mnangagwa dismissed allegations he will run for a third term in office, saying, “there is not an iota of evidence where Zanu PF or I, as President, has ever expressed the violation of our Constitution,” He added that “we in Zanu PF are very democratic and we obey the Constitution”.
But he has not done anything to stop those publicly calling for a third term. If anything, recently at a function in Mashonaland East province, he called ministers onto the stage to chant the slogan “2030 vaMnangagwa vanenge varipo”.
Speaking at a politburo meeting in June Mnangagwa urged the Zanu PF party leadership not to allow divisions to derail the party’s objectives. “We must not allow divisions to derail our party’s objectives, hatidi mazwake mazwake.” All these issues point to a problem in ZANU-PF because of the third-term talk. If there is a threat to ZANUPF’s current hold on power, it is from ZANU-PF itself.
One thing that should be understood is that internal fights in ZANUPF are often long and subtle. The factions in ZANU-PF fight via proxies, and many times some opposition elements have been used by the warring ZANUPF factions to push not-so-hidden agendas with the promise to accommodate them in power or protect them from prosecution.
In the 2017 coup the opposition was deeply involved in the planning, and some of its leading elements openly celebrated the coup as a big victory only to be surprised when they were left out of government. Regarding the current situation, the statement by the information minister begs the question of whether the state or the government is aware of nefarious activities by a faction of ZANU-PF that wants to “cause anarchy” using the opposition.
In recent years, there have been serious divisions and fights in ZANUPF like the Dinyane debacle in 2004, the 2008 Bhora Musango fiasco, the 2014 fights that led to the firing of Joyce Mujuru and her cabal. These 2016-2017 fights led to the November 2017 coup.
The gladiators and the movers and shakers in ZANUPF now know how to play the cards too close to their chest because they know only too well that if they reveal their cards too early, they can be political history in a matter of seconds. I believe those close to Mnangagwa know that many in the party are not happy with the call for a third term or an extension of the current term, and that they will do anything and everything to resist the move. The opposition and civil society are just pawns and scapegoats in this game.
Weak Civil Society.
It also so happens that civil society in Zimbabwe is currently at its weakest and has no capacity or interest in organising any mass protests. This is due to many reasons. After the 2013 elections, many civil society organisations disengaged from active politics and have since been working from the sidelines. Of course, many still identify with the issues raised by the opposition because Zimbabwe has been in a political and economic crisis for more than two decades, and everyone wishes things would change for the better.
This is why a lot of people had high hopes after the 2017 military coup, and why some marched alongside the army in the streets of Bulawayo and Harare. They believed the Mnangagwa crew was genuine when they talked about “new dispensation” and the “Second Republic” being different from the Mugabe-led government. People expected the regime to mend its relations with the international community, deal with the Gukurahundi genocide in a clear and precise way and run a transparent, corrupt-free government that respects the rule of law.
But, alas, that has been a mirage. Fatigue is slowly creeping into civil society as many people ask, ” what have you achieved? Where are the results? A lot of actors have “professionalised” their activism and they now prefer to play it safe. The NGO Bill that is hanging over civil society activists like the Sword of Damocles has all but paralysed the already weak civil society.
Come to think of it, when did you last see a strongly worded statement from the once vocal and powerful civil society about the state of democracy, human rights or the rule of law in the country? In the last 12 months, a lot has happened from the Gold Mafia, the capture of the opposition by the state, corruption, etc, and civil society has been conspicuous by its silence.
The NGO Bill has also divided civil society because those who want to take a radical stance have no audience. Many people now believe that they should toe the line, not to be found to be on the wrong side of the regime. A lot of civil society organisations believe the NGO Bill is targeting the “bad guys” in the sector, and therefore, they do not want to be associated with the bad guys.
A lot of the organisations are silently complying with the NGO Bill as if it’s now the law even before it has been signed into law. If anyone starts a petition online on anything, no matter how harmless it seems; they would be lucky to have over 100 organisations signing. The regime has been able to cow most of us into near if not total silence. People have decided to play dead to keep quiet and to work for their families.
The government knows this, and for the government to claim that civil society is planning anarchy is just being mischievous. Is the government afraid to take the message to the gladiators in ZANU PF who are organising what the government is warning about? The situation has been made worse by the international community, which seems like it does not have a clear strategy on how to deal with ZANU-PF post the 2017 coup; but this is a story for another day.
Is the opposition a threat to ZANU-PF?
Meanwhile, the disorganised state of the opposition is a cause for concern, as it hinders its ability to effectively challenge ZANU-PF’s hold on power.
For the first time since 2000, ZANU-PF has not had any sleepless nights because of the opposition. A combination of strategic blunders by the opposition and the manipulation of hungry and angry opposition actors has delivered ZANUPF blank cheques to do as it pleases without pressure from the opposition.
For example, ZANU PF went into the 2023 elections very clear that it wanted a two-thirds majority. After all, it wanted to deal with the succession issue. While the country’s Constitution has a clear term limit, the ZANU-PF constitution does not, which is a headache they have to deal with. The failure to get a two-thirds majority made ZANU PF try all tricks in the book to manipulate the opposition. The resignation of Chamisa or the emergence of Tshabangu, whichever you prefer, gave ZANU PF the victory it desperately needed.
It is also instructive to note that most current opposition MPs don’t want an election in 2028 because they know they will not be picked as candidates for the opposition. So, any chance to extend the term of Parliament, these MPs will see it as Mana from Haven, and they won’t miss an opportunity to have another two years in Parliament.
Within ZANUPF, some believe Chiwenga is the automatic successor, while others believe Chiwenga cannot win an election, so the Constitution has to be amended so that parliament votes for the President. Regardless of how one looks at the issue, ZANUPF is thinking of retaining power post-2028 or 2030, by any means necessary, and the opposition is still fighting amongst itself, pointing fingers at each other about who sold out. Sengezo Tshabangu will not be a factor in 2030 unless another Sengezo emerges. As such, the opposition should start seriously introspecting and preparing for the next election whenever it happens.
But is there opposition after Nelson Chamisa, or is Nelson Chamisa still “the best foot forward”? Given the disorganised opposition, the Kenyan-style demos are possible because, contrary to many beliefs, Zimbabweans are not cowards. They have staged successful protests before, but currently, the protests are unlikely. The security sector in Zimbabwe is very active, and it knows only too well what is happening. Strangely, the government decided to publish a statement that purported to be addressing the opposition and civil society. Is the government aware of any moves by a ZANU PF faction that wants to ‘work with the opposition to plan anarchy”?
There may very well be something going that the public is not aware of. Time will tell.
