Zimbabwe faces the prospect of a difficult 2026/27 rainy season as an exceptionally strong El Niño develops, raising the risk of drought, crop failure, water shortages and worsening food insecurity. Here is what the climate phenomenon means and how the country can prepare.
Zimbabwe is bracing for the possibility of another challenging rainy season as El Niño threatens to influence weather patterns across Southern Africa.
The climate phenomenon is associated with changes in rainfall and temperature that can increase the risk of drought, particularly in parts of Southern Africa. For Zimbabwe, the main concerns include erratic rainfall, prolonged dry spells, reduced agricultural production and pressure on already vulnerable water supplies.
But what exactly is El Niño, how does it develop, and what could it mean for Zimbabwe?
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What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual over a sustained period.
It forms part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate pattern involving changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation across the tropical Pacific. ENSO has three phases: El Niño, La Niña and neutral conditions.
El Niño can influence weather far beyond the Pacific Ocean, changing rainfall patterns, temperatures and storm activity in different parts of the world.
Its effects are not the same everywhere. Some regions experience hotter, drier conditions, while others receive heavier rainfall and face an increased risk of flooding.
How does El Niño develop?
Under normal conditions, trade winds blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific, pushing warm surface water towards Indonesia and Australia. Cooler water rises from deeper ocean layers near the coast of South America.
During El Niño, these trade winds weaken, allowing warm water to spread eastwards across the Pacific. This alters the temperature distribution of the ocean and changes the movement of air, cloud formation and rainfall.
The resulting changes in atmospheric circulation can influence weather systems in distant regions, including Southern Africa.
Scientists monitor sea surface temperatures, atmospheric conditions and other indicators to determine whether El Niño is developing and how strong it may become.
How does El Niño affect global weather patterns?
El Niño changes the distribution of heat and moisture in the atmosphere, influencing rainfall, temperature and storm patterns around the world.
Depending on the strength of the event and other climate influences, its effects can include:
- Drought: Some regions experience prolonged periods of below-average rainfall, affecting agriculture and water supplies.
- Higher temperatures: El Niño can contribute to unusually warm conditions in many parts of the world.
- Flooding: Other regions may receive excessive rainfall, increasing the risk of flooding and landslides.
- Changes in storms: It can alter the development and distribution of tropical storms and influence seasonal weather systems.
- Pressure on food production: Changes in rainfall and temperature can reduce harvests, disrupt supply chains and increase food prices.
El Niño does not produce the same outcomes everywhere, and its effects depend on the time of year, regional geography and other climate patterns. It also interacts with long-term climate change, which is increasing the risks associated with extreme heat and some other weather hazards.
What weather changes could occur in Southern Africa?
Southern Africa is one of the regions where El Niño is commonly associated with an increased risk of below-normal rainfall, particularly during the main summer rainy season.
Countries such as Zimbabwe, Zambia, Botswana, Namibia and parts of South Africa can experience reduced rainfall, although the effects vary from one country and season to another.
Potential changes include:
- Erratic rainfall: Rain may arrive late, stop for extended periods or fall unevenly across the region.
- Prolonged dry spells: Extended periods without rain can damage crops, reduce pasture and place livestock under stress.
- Higher temperatures: Hot conditions can increase evaporation and cause soils and water sources to dry out more quickly.
- Reduced river flows and dam inflows: Poor rainfall can limit the amount of water entering rivers, reservoirs and other water sources.
- Increased food insecurity: Lower agricultural production can reduce household food supplies and increase dependence on food assistance.
However, El Niño does not rule out heavy storms or localised flooding. Individual weather events can still bring intense rainfall even during a season that is drier than average overall.
How will El Niño affect Zimbabwe?
For Zimbabwe, the biggest concern is the possibility of below-normal and poorly distributed rainfall during the 2026/27 agricultural season.
The impact will depend on the strength and duration of El Niño, the timing of the rains and conditions across individual farming areas. A seasonal forecast indicates probabilities rather than a guaranteed outcome for every district.
1. Threat to agriculture and food security
Zimbabwe relies heavily on rain-fed agriculture, leaving many smallholder farmers vulnerable to changes in rainfall.
A delayed start to the rainy season could disrupt planting, while prolonged dry spells after planting could cause crops to wilt or fail. Maize and other crops may be particularly vulnerable when moisture is inadequate during critical stages of growth.
Farmers could face reduced harvests, lower household food stocks and increased production costs if they need to replant or purchase additional inputs.
2. Livestock under pressure
Reduced rainfall can affect the growth of grazing pastures and limit the availability of water for cattle, goats and other livestock.
Animals may lose body condition, become more susceptible to disease and produce less milk. Farmers could also face higher costs for supplementary feed and water, while shortages of grazing may force some to move livestock or sell animals.
3. Water shortages in cities and rural communities
Poor rainfall can reduce the amount of water entering dams and rivers, putting pressure on supplies for households, businesses, industry and agriculture.
In urban areas, lower dam inflows could complicate water-supply management, particularly where demand is already high or infrastructure is under strain. Rural communities that depend on boreholes, wells and small reservoirs may also face difficulties if water sources become less reliable.
For Bulawayo, the risk reinforces the importance of conserving treated water, repairing leaks and protecting the city’s water sources. Actual supply conditions will depend on dam levels, consumption, infrastructure and decisions by the local authority.
4. Increased risk of food insecurity
Poor harvests can reduce the amount of food available to households and increase the cost of basic commodities.
Families that depend on subsistence farming or seasonal agricultural work may be especially vulnerable because a poor season can affect both their food supplies and their incomes.
The effects may extend beyond rural communities, as reduced agricultural output can influence food prices and the cost of living in towns and cities.
5. Pressure on vulnerable households
Households with limited savings, unreliable access to water and few alternative sources of income may struggle to cope with a prolonged dry spell.
Communities already affected by poverty, food insecurity or limited access to essential services may need additional support if the season performs poorly.
Does El Niño mean Zimbabwe will definitely experience drought?
No. El Niño increases the risk of certain weather conditions, but it does not guarantee drought in every part of Zimbabwe.
The actual outcome will depend on several factors, including the strength of the El Niño event, other climate influences, the timing and distribution of rainfall, and local conditions.
Some areas may receive useful rainfall while others experience prolonged dry spells. Heavy storms and localised flooding may also occur during an otherwise dry season.
This is why seasonal forecasts should be read as probabilities, not certainties. Farmers, local authorities and households should follow updates from Zimbabwe’s Meteorological Services Department and relevant agricultural extension officers as the season develops.
How can Zimbabwe prepare for El Niño?
Although the country cannot control the climate phenomenon, early preparation can reduce its potential effects.
What farmers can do
Farmers should seek advice from Agritex officers and monitor official weather forecasts before making planting decisions.
Where suitable for their area, they can consider drought-tolerant and early-maturing crop varieties, stagger planting where recommended, conserve soil moisture through appropriate farming practices and harvest rainwater.
Livestock owners should also plan for possible shortages of pasture and drinking water, preserve suitable feed where possible and seek veterinary advice on managing animals during dry periods.
What rural communities can do
Communities can conserve available water, maintain and protect boreholes and other water points, and store drinking water safely.
Households should also consider how they would manage reduced harvests or prolonged dry spells, including identifying available support services and protecting essential food supplies where possible.
Local authorities and disaster management agencies can use seasonal forecasts to identify vulnerable communities, assess water supplies and plan assistance before conditions deteriorate.
What urban residents can do
Urban households can reduce water consumption by repairing leaking taps and pipes, avoiding unnecessary water use and reusing water where appropriate and safe.
Residents should follow water-supply announcements from their local authorities and avoid wasting treated water.
At the same time, communities should keep drains clear and remain alert to sudden storms. A season associated with drought risk can still produce dangerous rainfall and flooding.
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