Zimbabwe Election: A mixed bag for both opposition and ruling party

Voting trends in the just-ended election in Zimbabwe show that opposition presidential candidate Nelson Chamisa is more popular than his party, the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC), while the ruling party Zanu PF is more favoured than President-elect Emmerson Mnangagwa despite his victory.

Mnangagwa received 52.6 percent of the vote, or 2 350 711 ballots, while Chamisa received 1 967 343 votes or 44 percent.

However, analysts believe this voting pattern may be ‘problematic’ for Zanu PF because supporters or people voting for the ruling party want a different presidential candidate.

The analysts attribute this to the phenomenon of Bhora Musango and several reasons why Zanu PF supporters saw it fit not to vote for Mnangagwa.

The amount of votes received by both presidential candidates in comparison to their parliamentary candidates demonstrates this tendency, with Chamisa obtaining more than his MP candidates in most constituencies and Mnangagwa receiving fewer votes than his own MPs.

Using purposive sampling, Mnangagwa received 3 317 votes in Cowdray Park in Bulawayo, compared to 6 530 for Zanu PF MP candidate Professor Mthuli Ncube despite him having hosted a presidential star rally in that constituency on August 2, 2023, to mobilise support during campaigning.  

Despite losing the Cowdray Park seat, Prof Ncube earned 3 213 more votes than Mnangagwa, implying a significant number of people did not vote for the Zanu PF presidential candidate.

Pashor Raphael Sibanda of CCC won the Cowdray Park constituency with 8 411 votes, while Chamisa garnered 11 205 votes.

However, Sibanda received 2 794 fewer votes than the CCC leader.

In Hwange Central, where President-elect Mnangagwa personally commissioned the US$1.5 billion Hwange Power Station Unit 7 and 8 extension project on August 3, 2023, he earned fewer votes than his MP candidate, who was defeated in the election.

Daniel Molokele of CCC won Hwange Central with 9 167 votes, while Zanu PF MP candidate Reeds Dube garnered 5 157 votes.

However, just 2 568 individuals voted for Mnangagwa in Hwange Central, while Chamisa earned 12 548 votes, which was more than Molokele received.

Looking at Midlands province, it is also worth noting that Mnangagwa garnered more votes than his MPs in four places.

(source @begottensun)

In Gokwe Chireya, Mnangagwa polled 13 189 votes while his MP had 10 380. 

In Gokwe-Gumunyu, he received 12 870 while the MP polled 11 505. 

In Kwekwe Central, Mnangagwa received 6 173 compared to his MP with 5 299.

In Silobela, Mnangagwa had 11 889 votes versus 11 674 of his MPs.

However, Chamisa received 14 times more votes than his MP candidates in Midlands.

In Chirumanzu Zibagwe, Chamisa received 5 694 votes while MP candidate had 5 076.

Chamisa had 11 905 votes in Gokwe Central versus his MP at 11 317.

In Gokwe Mapfungautsi, Chamisa polled 5 406 while MP had 5 056.

At Gweru Urban, Chamisa polled 13 253 while his MP had 12 848.

In Mkoba North, Chamisa had 13 439 votes, his MP had 12 549.

In Mkoba South, Chamisa had 14 514 while his MP polled 14 005.

Chamisa had 17 305 votes in Kwekwe Mbizo while his MP – 15 800.

In Redcliff, Chamisa had 11 381 votes versus 10 352 of his MP.

In Mberengwa Central, Chamisa had 4 019 while MP had 3 867

In Mberengwa East, Chamisa polled  5 943 versus 5 263 of his MP.

In Shurugwi North, Chamisa had 9 219 to 9 094 for his MP.

In Shurugwi South, Chamisa polled 5 136 to 4 668 for his MP.

Chamisa polled 13 231 votes in Zvishavane Ngezi versus 11 607 for his MP. 

Statistics also reveal that in 2018, Mnangagwa polled worse than his party.

He received 2 456 010 votes, while his MPs received a total of 2 477 708, a disparity of 21 698 votes. In comparison, Chamisa received 2 151 927 votes while his MP candidates received 1 643 366 votes, a difference of 508 561.

According to political expert Bernard Magugu, Chamisa is more powerful and popular than his party CCC, whereas Mnangagwa is weaker and Zanu PF is more powerful than him. 

“However, Mnangagwa is reported to have won because of large margins of people voting in rural areas, which are Zanu PF strongholds, while poor turnout in urban areas cost Chamisa,” he stated.

“The voting trend or what we call Bhora Musango is problematic for Mnangagwa because if there was another stronger leader within the ruling party, Mnangagwa might not have made it, perhaps this is why Kasukwuere was barred from running.”

Interim CCC Bulawayo Provincial Spokesperson, Swithern Chirowodza claimed Mnangagwa was not a popular figure compared to Chamisa.

“The humiliating removal of Robert Mugabe was not entirely agreed upon in Zanu PF. Two, the violence on the citizenry is not an all-Zanu PF members’ Manifesto. Three, some members are ashamed by violence that props up Zanu PF – Gukurahundi and other atrocities committed by state security agents,” he said.

Chirowodza added another perception is that Gukurahundi is associated with Mnangagwa, therefore some members want a different face to front the party.

“A failure to break from past Zanu PF malpractices – corruption, looting and state capture has seen many within Zanu PF yearn for another face to front the party,” he said.