The recent electoral defeats of Africa’s long-standing ruling parties, notably Botswana’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) and South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC), highlight the growing challenge of internal divisions in maintaining power.
Analysts warn that the ‘fractionalisation’ observed within both ruling and opposition parties across Africa is reshaping political dynamics and may continue to destabilise governance and opposition effectiveness.
On November 1, 2024, the BDP, which has governed Botswana since independence in 1966, lost its parliamentary majority for the first time, signalling a historic shift.
Political infighting between current President Mokgweetsi Masisi and former President Ian Khama, son of Botswana’s founding leader, has been identified as a primary factor in the BDP’s fragmentation.
Khama’s breakaway to form the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) and Masisi’s subsequent issuance of an arrest warrant for him worsened the rift, leaving voters disillusioned with the BDP’s internal discord.
In South Africa, the ANC, once dominant, now faces a similar struggle, winning just over 40% of the vote in recent elections, forcing it to enter a coalition government.
The emergence of uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK), led by former President Jacob Zuma, further divided ANC support, drawing votes that might have gone to Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), a party that previously commanded a stronger third-party position.
The success of MK, positioned in third place, reflects voter appetite for new alternatives even within familiar political ideologies.
As former co-Minister of National Healing, Moses Mzila Ndlovu, explains, these rifts reflect deeper disillusionment with the ruling parties’ performance.
“Over time, people have been watching the performance of ruling parties, and to a large extent, have been so disappointed with their performance, as the public eventually realised that they have been taken for a ride, and these revolutionaries per se, were actually a hoax,” he said.
“They are fake people, who are onto an agenda of self-enrichment, looking after their families, after themselves.”
Ndlovu argues that historical loyalties are fading, with citizens recognising a disconnect between “liberation promises” and the harsh realities of poverty, unemployment and dilapidated infrastructure that persist in many African countries.
“In Zimbabwe, our condition became worse after 1980. We became poorer, the infrastructure became more dilapidated. In fact, 90% of the infrastructure that still exists now is the infrastructure built by the colonial regime,” he said.
“People have seen this and so when these issues are taken to the national executives of these political parties and are discussed, ideological trends begin to emerge.”
Ndlovu believes the problem originates in the age and ideological stagnation of these parties.
“The ANC was founded in 1912, Zanu PF in 1963, and the BDP in the 1950s,” he notes.
“Their longevity has allowed them to sustain power by feeding the public a narrative of liberation.”
According to Ndlovu, the leaders of these parties now prioritise personal wealth over delivering on their liberation promises.
“The racial divide that we saw during the colonial era disappeared, but resurfaced in the form of class structures between the rich and the poor black people. Previously, we had rich White people versus poor Black people, and it is this re-emergence of a super class of rich people that the black people who were promised – the liberation promise – were told that we are actually organising ourselves as Black people to collapse colonialism on behalf of the suffering people,” Ndlovu added.
The former minister said in Zimbabwe, the ruling Zanu PF has clung to power through both political manipulation and the support of military elites despite national scandals like the War Victims Compensation Fund and the Willowgate scandal, which are symptoms of a corrupt ruling structure.
These scandals Ndlovu said have not resulted in the kind of split that Zimbabweans would have expected, attributing this to the involvement of the military.
“The military was clandestinely brought overboard by Robert Mugabe to bolster his influence and to intimidate both internal and external forces in Zanu PF and outside of Zanu PF. The military quietly is actually the kingmaker now, securing Zanu PF’s grip on power not for the public’s sake but for its own enrichment,” said the former minister.
“The only thing that keeps people in Zanu PF is the hope, like in the Bible, people are hoping that one day they will be favoured by the leaders of Zanu PF, but it is all going to come to an end.”
The opposition is no better off, Ndlovu argued. Zimbabwe’s Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) and South Africa’s EFF exhibit similar internal fissures.
“It is about personalities and that in itself explains the fissures in these opposition parties because people ignore the principles and values stated in their founding documents. They begin to create something of a kitchen cabinet where the purpose of the party is to serve the interests of an individual,” he said.
“In addition to that, the general public is so ignorant, like in Zimbabwe, people are so totally blissfully ignorant of the personalities that you find in the forefront of the opposition political parties. They don’t know the characters. As long as the public is misinformed, they are likely not to make good decisions about the disposal of these personalities politically.”
Ndlovu added there is not much of a difference between the manner in which the ruling political parties and opposition are now run.
“Opposition political parties also begin to manifest themselves as cult organisations that say ‘God is in it, God is in everything’ and that in itself explains that not so far from now, somebody will be denouncing that and that will cause a rift,” he said, warning inward focus on individual power and wealth, rather than ideological coherence or public service, will lead to further instability across African opposition parties.
Political commentator, Mxolisi Ncube echoed this sentiment, arguing that African politics suffers from a lack of true leadership on both sides.
“Politicians are doing it for personal benefit at the expense of their countries, while the masses have allowed themselves to be used as political tools by following populists at the expense of the ideologically driven,” he said.
“Most of the people who lead popular political parties in Africa are nothing more than motivational speakers and con men who are gifted in misleading without having the faintest idea of leadership and governance.”
In Ncube’s view, this phenomenon has allowed self-serving elites to control both ruling and opposition parties, as seen in Zimbabwe, where both Zanu PF and CCC prioritise loyalty over ideological commitment.
“In Zimbabwe, dictators and cultists are in charge of both Zanu PF and the so-called mainstream opposition, which in actual fact is Zanu PF using false identity. MDC CCC is, following the demise of Morgan Tsvangirai (himself a low key dictator) now a personal cult in the hand of Nelson Chamisa and his legion of see-no-evil tell-no-evil blue-eyed boys, while Zanu PF has continued to be a movement of greedy mafias driven by insatiable hunger to loot.”
In South Africa, Ncube contends, there is still a semblance of ideological leanings, but personal agendas dominate, stifling genuine political progress.
He believes that Africa’s challenge lies in the tendency to replace one flawed leadership with another, leading to a cycle of ineffective governance.
“The biggest losers in all this are the masses who allow politicians to play around with them. The sooner people seize power from politicians by giving a thumbs down to those who show the slightest signs of dictatorship the sooner we will correct this. While it is good that ruling parties that have been in charge and ruling for some time are being dismantled and new ones are taking over, the problem is that we are still replacing clueless dictators with other clueless dictators and the problems will therefore persist,” Ncube said.
Dr Khanyile Mlotshwa, a critical studies scholar, compares the life cycle of political parties to human development, suggesting these parties’ recent setbacks could be part of a natural progression.
“Organisations have a life, just like all living organisms, be it animals or plants. A 16 year old pretty girl is not the same as a mature gorgeous 30 year old woman; but between the two none is less beautiful than the other,” he said.
“The beauty of political parties is their ideology and political agenda. This is what people vote for or join parties for, to be foot soldiers of a political agenda, and not of an individual. What is happening across the world is that political parties are growing, moving from one stage of their life cycle to another. In that process they may lose support and may lose some of their members.”
Dr Mlotshwa argues that in the modern era, parties must evolve to appeal to a new generation of voters who demand effective governance over historical allegiance.
“But as long as they are built on a sound ideological foundation, true to form, someday they will return, regain support and attract new members. That is what is happening with the democrats failing to get a second term in the US. Trump also failed to get it last time, but he is back. This is what is happening in South Africa, to the ANC and the EFF. It is a process of growth,” he said.
“This is what has happened to the BDP in Botswana and the ruling party in Mozambique. It’s just that in Mozambique, like in Zimbabwe, the ruling party is refusing to accept loss, to accept growth.”
Dr Mlotshwa added that growth is sometimes disguised as loss.
“A woman who loses virginity, loses virginity but they are growing in that they enter the stage of procreation. They lose their virginity and gain this power to bring life.”
In many ways, these political shifts are a reflection of Africa’s broader social transformation where citizens demand more from their leaders and are increasingly intolerant of internal conflicts and self-serving leadership.
Whether in ruling or opposition parties, these internal divisions are a symptom of a continent at a crossroads, grappling with the legacy of liberation while pushing for accountability and progress, while aiming to rise above personal power struggles but prioritise genuine public service.
Politician and Bulawayo mayor, David Coltart, praised how there has been a dramatic shift in the power balance within the SADC region in the last few months.
“Zambia was rather isolated in its pro-democracy stance but in the last few months South Africa (through the GNU), Botswana and now Mauritius have had free and fair elections resulting in parties more committed to democracy at home and abroad coming to power,” Coltart said.
“There is now a significant core of Nations genuinely committed to SADC Electoral guidelines- Zambia, Botswana, Lesotho, South Africa and Mauritius. This is going to make it more difficult for the remaining tyrants to brazenly subvert the electoral process and to oppress democratic forces in their own countries. A fresh, vibrant wind of change appears to be sweeping through Southern Africa.”
