Analysts say the future of Zimbabwe’s opposition before the 2028 elections will depend largely on how ZANU PF manages its internal conflicts and whether a credible movement or coalition emerges to challenge the ruling party.
The debate was aired during This Morning on Asakhe, an X Spaces programme hosted by the Centre for Innovation and Technology (CITE), where commentators discussed civic space, power, and what the dynamics mean for ordinary Zimbabweans.
Political analyst Nicksen Mpofu said factional disputes in ZANU PF were nothing new and often surfaced ahead of elections.
“The ZANU PF internal problems are cyclical. History repeats itself when it comes to factions. We can go back to the time of Joyce Mujuru when she was fired from ZANU PF. They had a lot of internal strife,” he said.
Mpofu added that such disputes have historically created openings for opposition parties. “These internal strifes come about too early before the election because I remember in 2007 there was internal strife within ZANU PF and in 2008 we had the election. People had rebelled against the late president Robert Mugabe, so in a way it helped the opposition MDC to capture a lot of seats and they almost took the majority vote,” he said.
He argued that if divisions persist, the opposition could benefit. “So I believe if the internal strife continues up to 2027 then the opposition, if there is an opposition, will gain an advantage because there will be struggles within ZANU PF. There will be a lot of campaigning against each other. ZANU PF fights amongst themselves but when there is a common enemy they tend to unite. We have seen instances like that. There’s a lot of fighting within ZANU PF, it’s an advantage to the opposition party,” said Mpofu.
Human rights and international development lawyer Taona Denhere agreed that factionalism has long been part of ZANU PF, but questioned whether the opposition was capable of taking advantage of it.
“Factionalism has been part and parcel of ZANU PF since time immemorial. Political parties have got factions, that’s their nature. The opposition must take advantage of the interparty fighting in ZANU PF,” he said.
However, Denhere said the reality was that Zimbabwe lacks a functioning opposition. “In theory it’s a very important proposition but in reality it’s very problematic and concerning quite a lot because as far as we know there is no opposition to talk about. The opposition is as dead as a dodo,” he said.
He argued that the structures needed for a credible challenge were absent. “When we talk of opposition you talk of leadership. You look at the opposition superstructure which does not exist in Zimbabwe. You talk of the organisation and the critical mass. Those key ingredients are really absent in Zimbabwe,” he said.
Activist Charlene Chikomo said the opposition had faced not just political competition but a hostile system designed to crush it since the late 1990s.
“From 1999 till now the opposition has not been contesting against ZANU PF as a political party. It is contesting against a system that does not allow the survival or even the existence of the opposition. We must not lie or shy away. We see people being beaten, we see people disappearing, we see political parties being crushed,” he said.
Chikomo added that while the system sought to destroy the opposition, the desire for change persisted. “It was created in a way that the opposition must not survive, must not exist. But the opposition has been resilient to such. You see, despite the disappearances, despite the imprisonment of political opponents and infiltration of parties, the idea of the opposition continues to thrive. What can be questioned is who is its leader at a given time, but the idea for change remains in the country,” he said.
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