Africa is at a crossroads and must chart a bold, independent development path if it is to escape cycles of poverty, debt and dependency, according to a new report by the Sivio Institute.
The study, Africa’s Path, paints a stark picture of rising debt, fragile food systems and weak industries while urging leaders to abandon imported economic prescriptions and embrace homegrown strategies focused on manufacturing, agriculture and technology.
“Africa must recover a sense of ambition. To dream again. This time, very boldly,” the report declares, echoing a recent call by The Economist.
The authors warn that the continent’s debt crisis has deepened in the past decade, with public debt reaching US$1.8 trillion. Twenty-seven countries are now above the 60% debt-to-GDP threshold, compared with 18 before the pandemic. “Africa is the only region where debt is growing faster than GDP,” the study notes.
Food insecurity is also worsening. Despite holding 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land, Africa spends $45 billion annually on food imports, a figure projected to more than double to $110 billion this year. “Over 20% of the population is undernourished while we import basic staples. This is a tragedy of policy and practice,” the report argues.
Manufacturing has collapsed under pressure from cheap imports and weak infrastructure. Sub-Saharan Africa’s share of manufacturing in GDP fell from 17% in 1995 to 12% in 2021. “We import what we eat, what we wear, and almost everything in our homes. Even so-called African fabric is mostly foreign-made,” the study observes.
The report is critical of decades of reliance on Western-led structural adjustment policies, calling them “disastrous” for Africa. It says the post-colonial state has become “a playground for grand theft and patronage politics”, and urges the creation of an “entrepreneurial African state” that is leaner, more transparent and better at fostering innovation. “Could this be the time to dispose of the state-owned enterprise model and make them into truly market players?” the report asks.
It calls for Africa to reject what it describes as “the neoliberal trickle-down Bible” and instead design its own frameworks for growth. “There is no better time than now to challenge the Washington Consensus. Even the US is abandoning it through new tariffs. Why should Africa remain its prisoner?” the authors write.
Agriculture is described as the sector most likely to drive Africa’s economic transformation, but current smallholder systems—dominated by rain-fed plots, weak land rights and reliance on imported fertilisers—are seen as unsustainable. “Agriculture on the continent remains dependent on the handheld hoe. Yet there is potential for productivity to grow by 1000% if we adopt smart agriculture practices aided by AI,” the report concludes.
Artificial intelligence is identified as another major opportunity. “Africa missed out on the App revolution. We cannot afford to miss the AI revolution,” it states, urging governments to invest in data, energy and innovation ecosystems.
The informal economy, which employs more than 80% of Africa’s workers, is described as “the key to Africa’s next leap”. The report criticises governments for treating informal businesses as a nuisance rather than as an engine of growth. “Africa’s path will entail growing its business base, just as Asia did,” it notes.
The authors insist Africa is not poor but poorly governed, highlighting losses of $88.6 billion each year through illicit financial flows. “If Africa were to plug these holes, it would have enough to fund healthcare, education and infrastructure,” the report says.
Governance failures, particularly corruption in procurement and state enterprises, are described as the greatest obstacle to progress. “In most cases, elections, public infrastructure and even farm inputs are opportunities for looting. Leaders have privatised the state for their families,” the study charges.
Ultimately, the report urges Africa to stop copying foreign models and instead forge its own vision. “The time for cut-and-paste prescriptions is over. Africa must recover its agency. We must end dependency on aid and external actors,” it concludes.
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