The fertility rate in Zimbabwe is likely to drop to approximately 3.2 children per woman in the next 20 years, according to the latest population projections from the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZIMSTAT).
Population projections are estimates of future population size and composition based on assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration rates calculated from the 2022 population count as the base population.
ZIMSTAT notes that these assumptions are critical components of population projections, as they determine the future growth, size, and structure of a population.
The fertility rate, which refers to the average number of children that would be born per woman if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years and bore children according to a given set of age-specific fertility rates, may be affected by such factors as economic and social situations and an increase in the uptake of contraceptives, according to the report.
“Annual fertility rates will fluctuate in response to economic and social situations. The instability of the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals may continue making it expensive to raise children in both urban and rural areas,” the report stated.
“Land, accommodation, food, and clothing are increasingly becoming expensive, while the purchasing power of income levels and savings is diminishing, and rising poverty levels are increasingly impacting family units’ ability to sustain themselves.”
According to the report, the fertility rate has been fluctuating over the years, rising from 2.89 to 3.58 and dropping again to 3.32.
“Fertility is expected to drop slowly to around 3.2 in the next 20 years. In accounting for uncertainty, variant population projections were considered. The principal fertility rate of 3.2 was projected to vary by +/-0.3 children by the end of the projection period,” the report stated.
“Marital fertility inhibition effects were shown to have increased from 2.89 to 3.58 children per woman in 1988 and 1999, before declining to 3.29 and 3.32 children per woman in 2005 and 2015, respectively. The marital fertility inhibition effect is considered partly responsible for fertility stalling between 2005 and 2015.”
According to the report, fertility stalling and slow decline point to the presence of economic factors and other embedded underlying socio-cultural factors within the country’s environment.
“The 1999-2015 ZDHS data points to a fertility decline due to an increase in the use of contraception, an increase in education, wealth quintiles, and urban residence. The data also showed that contraception uptake and use are positively correlated to education, wealth, and residence,” the report stated.
“This expected decline in the fertility rate indicates the effects of women’s empowerment through access to education, especially tertiary level, female employment, and poverty alleviation strategies.”
